(Alimohamadi Yousef) - Tehran University of Medical Sciences School of Public Health Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics
(Taghdir Maryam) - Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences Life Style Institute Health Research Center
(Sepandi Mojtaba) - Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences Life Style Institute Health Research Center
Abstract
Objectives: The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is one of the main public health challenges currently facing the world. Because of its high transmissibility, COVID-19 has already caused extensive morbidity and mortality in many countries throughout the world. An accurate estimation of the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 would be beneficial for prevention programs. In light of discrepancies in original research on this issue, this systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to estimate the pooled R0 for COVID-19 in the current outbreak.
Methods: International databases (including Google Scholar, Science Direct, PubMed, and Scopus) were searched to identify studies conducted regarding the R0 of COVID-19. Articles were searched using the following keywords: ¡°COVID-19¡± and ¡°basic reproduction number¡± or ¡°R0.¡± The heterogeneity among studies was assessed using the I2 index, the Cochran Q test, and T2. A random-effects model was used to estimate R0 in this study.
Results: The mean reported R0 in the identified articles was 3.38¡¾1.40, with a range of 1.90 to 6.49. According to the results of the random-effects model, the pooled R0 for COVID-19 was estimated as 3.32 (95% confidence interval, 2.81 to 3.82). According to the results of the meta-regression analysis, the type of model used to estimate R0 did not have a significant effect on heterogeneity among studies (p=0.81).
Conclusions: Considering the estimated R0 for COVID-19, reducing the number of contacts within the population is a necessary step to control the epidemic. The estimated overall R0 was higher than the World Health Organization estimate.
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Basic reproduction number, COVID-19, Meta-analysis, Public health, Outbreak
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The estimated overall R0 was higher than the WHO estimate; Pooled estimate 3.32 (95% CI: 2.81, 3.82) <0.001 I2=99.4, T2=1.72